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Checking Eric Partridge's <Dictionary of Catch Phrases> (P. 163), I found that there is an Australian AND an American origin! The American refers to Ed Flynn, a NYC politician (1940's) "whose Democratic Party machine exercised absolute political control over the Bronx, NYC, hence the candidates he backed were almost automatically 'in' " (meaning--easy winners or, if we want to further confuse ourselves, shoe-in's)! Barbara Carr Yorktown Hghts, NY bbc123@JUNO.com