Hit # 2:Quotes on Rate of Technology Change

[Susan Brown <smbrown@mindspring.com>]

Fellow Fund Seekers,

I think we all ought to be inspired to "whip up" a Powerpoint
presentation and inform our school boards and communities how critical
our programs are. Again, combine this with a little explanation on how
powerful simply doubling a number a few times is and the results are
astounding! Here's some "ammunition":
Thank you so much to Angus Saunders, Carol Simpson, Ken Umbach, Julia
Christian, Frances Aley and Suzanne Franklin who gave me the exact
information and their sources for the estimated rate of technology
change.
First are explanations and sources for Moore's Law (technology change).
Following that is information on the expanding rate of information.

What you are referring to is "Moore's Law,"  a projection made by Intel
co-founder George Moore 20 years ago.  The only source I have at the
moment  is an article from the January 1995 issue of Technology and
Learning titled  "Technology in Education: Getting the Upper Hand"  It
is Part 1 in a series  of articles titled "What Every Teacher Needs to
Know about Technology."

The statistic pertains specifically to the number of transistors that
can be put on a given area of silicon -- doubling every 18 months.  It
is "Moore's Law," mentioned, for example, in this quoted passage:
"As Craig Barrett, executive vice president and chief operating officer,
explained, Intel continues to adhere to Moore's Law, which states that
the number of transistors per chip doubles every 18 months. The company
predicts that silicon scaling will reach its physical limit by the year
2017.
     "Source: Cade Metz, 'Intel Pushes Pentium Pro,' PC Magazine, August
1996, p. 36"

See http://www.duke.edu/~mccann/q-tech.htm (where I found the above) for
lots more that may be of value.  Or search on "Moore's Law".

I've been quoting from "Information Literacy: Educating Children for the
21st Century" by Patricia Senn Breivik.  "In 1954, information doubled
every 2 years; now it doubles every 30 to 36 MONTHS.  By the year 2000,
it will double every 12 to 18 months."

Actually, I think the quote is that INFORMATION doubles every 18-24
months. That quote comes from Information Anxiety.


What Price Information?
Computation
5000BC  abacus  2-4 instrucs./sec
1970s           computer        10,000,000 ips
1990s           computer        1,000,000,000 ips
Transmission of information
4000BC  messenger       .01 words/minute
1980s           cable/fiber     1,000,000,000wpm
1990s           fiber       100,000,000,000wpm

Human Information Processing
4000BC - written language - 300 wpm
1990s - written language - 300 wpm
4000BC - visual images - 100,000,000 bits per glance
1990s - visual images - 100,000,000 bits per glance
4000BC - spoken language - 120 wpm
1990s - spoken language - 120 wpm

Susan
Susan Brown smbrown@mindspring.com
Media Specialist
Westside Elementary School  http://polk.ga.net/westside
Cedartown, GA

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