Re: Hit:Gen: Quote on rate of tech advances

[Ken Umbach <kumbach@UNLIMITED.NET>]

The statistic pertains specifically to the number of transistors that can
be put on a given area of silicon -- doubling every 18 months.  It is
"Moore's Law," mentioned, for example, in this quoted passage:

"As Craig Barrett, executive vice president and chief operating officer,
explained, Intel continues to adhere to Moore's Law, which states that the
number of transistors per chip doubles every 18 months. The company
predicts that silicon scaling will reach its physical limit by the year 2017.
     "Source: Cade Metz, 'Intel Pushes Pentium Pro,' PC Magazine, August
1996, p. 36"

See http://www.duke.edu/~mccann/q-tech.htm (where I found the above) for
lots more that may be of value.  Or search on "Moore's Law".

If this does not do the trick, let me know.  I have a fairly substantial
technical library of my own ...

Regards,

Ken

At 04:48 AM 5/2/98 -0400, you wrote:
>I still need a source for my data, but Chuck Finnegan and I both
>remember hearing that computer power is doubling every 18 months.
>It's a powerful statistic to use in community, school board
>presentations -- especially if you go on to illustrate exactly what the
>power of doubling is.
>If you happen upon the documented information I would appreciate your
>posting its source to me or to the list. Thanks!

--
Kenneth W. Umbach, Ph.D., Policy Analyst
California Research Bureau, California State Library
900 N St., Suite 300 -- Sacramento, California 95814
E-mail: kumbach@unlimited.net or kumbach@library.ca.gov
Phone (voice) 916-653-6002 (fax) 916-654-5829
Personal Web page and selected papers: http://members.unlimited.net/~kumbach
This message reflects my opinion, not that of my employer or anyone else.

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